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1 month ago

Some food for thought:

Voter turnout in US pres elections has been generally increasing since 1980. It has gone from a low of ~51% of the voting eligible population (VEP) in 1996 to the high of 65% in 2020. To reiterate, the election with the highest turnout since 1980 still had around 1 in 3 voting eligible people NOT voting.

It is true that 2024 was the first time the GOP candidate won the popular vote since 2004 (Bush-Kerry). The good news is that 2024 had the second-tightest margins of the popular vote between the candidates. The tightest was Bush-Gore in 2000.

In 2024, Harris actually won more popular votes than Trump did in 2020. Trump did better in 2024 than he did in 2020 or 2016, but he still didn't get close to Biden's 2020 numbers.

While the turnout has increased, the gap between winning and losing candidates has decreased since 2000. Before then, candidates in both parties won by anywhere from 5% of the turnout (Clinton-Bush in 1992) to 18% (Reagan-Mondale in 1984). Since 2000, the gap has generally been less than 4% of turnout, with the exceptions of Obama's first election (2008, against McCain--7%) and Biden in 2020 (4.5%).

Perhaps most interesting, the way all these numbers shake out is that our president is regularly elected by a mere 30% of the VEP. Sometimes (1992, 2000) they're elected by just 25% of the VEP. Rarely does a candidate on either side win more than 30% of the VEP vote, and Biden holds the record of largest amount of the VEP in 2020 (33.77%).

So, assuming we get to have another election, we need people to vote.


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