I Have A Bunch Of Theories About The Lost Metal And Era 3, Particularly About What Sazed Is Planning.

I have a bunch of theories about The Lost Metal and Era 3, particularly about what Sazed is planning.

Sazed has master plans

I know this may end up being an unpopular opinion. But to me the story came across as if Sazed has been operating as the Chessmaster the entire time, all part of a coordinated effort to outmaneuver Autonomy. An effort to make her withdraw her army and interest in Telsin. I think a lot of little quotes in The Lost Metal, and certain quotes in the previous books, point to Sazed subtly maneuvering everyone - Wax, Wayne, Marasi, Kelsier and his Ghostbloods, Marsh, Tobal and Maraga, Steris (?). All with very powerful, very subtle future sight to make specific outcomes come to fruition.

Since chapter 19 I suspected Sazed had a plan in motion, one that needed him to arrange “help” unaware they were mobilized to be the “help.” One that required him to play games over and over with Autonomy. This suspicion came back once Wax speculated he always intended for him to be the Sword that stops a God Metal bomb.

Chapter 71 confirmed aspects of future sight I was curious about… ever since I started analyzingthe Terris Prophecies. Sazed confirmed that he sees future possibilities, automatically analyzes something as complex as a harmonium-trellium bomb, think much faster than mortals, and can discern the probabilities of an action (i.e. 1% chance of success, 99% chance of failure). Sazed even fleshed out what Fuzz warned Kelsier - even future sight as great as Preservation’s can be wrong. Sazed also confirmed that while Shards see future possibilities and analyze probabilities, they don’t always know the “why” of a possibility. Such as “why” it is good. This eased my suspicions.

But then Kelsier’s epilogue came along. While I don’t think Sazed is acting “all is perfectly according to keikaku,” he’s acting close enough. I think he was ultimately keeping certain, ultimate future outcomes in mind. The responses to Kelsier’s frustration made alarm bells ring in my mind:

"I had it in hand."

"Luck is a different thing to a god who can see futures, I think."

"I have it in hand."

"People should discover it on their own. If they do not, there are subtle consequences."

What if Sazed always knew Trell was Autonomy? After all Autonomy created Trelagism, and we know from book 3’s epilogue that Preservation hid “gems” in Trelagism to help the Hero of Ages. What if he let Autonomy’s plans get to this stage, knowing he could efficiently arrange pieces that could stop her? Or maybe he bet it would be the perfect event to encourage the continents to advance and progress?

What if Sazed was betting on Wax fulfilling his duties after the Lessie fiasco? What if he intentionally molded Wayne into the Slider who could accomplish the partial detonation? What if he knows the history of Scadrian eugenics and discerning what could happen if he directly GIVES knowledge of future tech?

His name shall be Discord, and they shall love him for it.

It’s obvious that Sazed is becoming Discord. Or perhaps, he’s already Discord by the time of Kelsier’s epilogue.

There’s clearly something going on with Sazed’s Shard, we just don’t know what. Harmony’s Intent left him unable to act, creating a state where every action needs equilibrium between P&R’s attributes. And there was a dark shadow throughout TLM. Kelsier speculates the shadow exists because Ruin was always stronger. Marsh’s interview with Khriss implies it may be the result of Ruin being subservient to Preservation.

My theory is Discord will be a good thing. Sazed directly educated Wax and Wayne about the bomb’s mechanics AND told them how to detonate it. Dulled the wave coming over Wax. Arranged for under 10 people to foil Autonomy’s complex plans, while his future sight was BLINDED. This is the most effective he’s been yet. I think Discord will be a Shard representing Sazed’s realization that Ruin and Preservation can’t always be in exact balance. Sometimes, Preservation’s attributes are needed most. Other times, Ruin’s attributes are needed most. I believe this mindset allow him to act, to commit actions that are EITHER of Preservation or Ruin.

I think Sazed is just trying to carefully move through his web of future possibilities. Preservation seemingly foresaw Discord will be a good thing. But if Sazed makes the wrong move, I bet he could invalidate that prediction.

How to make the Bands of Mourning, Excisors, unkeyed metalminds

Unkeyed metalminds contain attributes that aren’t attached to a Feruchemist’s Identity. But without Full Feruchemists, it’s impossible for a sole Feruchemist to create an unkeyed metalmind.

My theory is the Southern Scadrians are extensively using the same method as the Set’s keep-people-alive Hemalurgy. I think to create an unkeyed metalmind, Southerners are using a Command and a very thin duralumin spike. This would rip off a piece of the Feruchemist’s Identity, making any future storing Identity-less.

I think the Excisors are nicrosil and/or duralumin spikes.

The Bands of Mourning is the really tough cookie. Kelsier is no longer an Allomancer and definitely not a Feruchemist, so he couldn’t use his own powers to create the Bands. There’s no way he used Northerners to make them. There are a lot of logistics issues. My theory is Sazed directly created the Bands of Mourning and guided Kelsier into hiding it.

It wouldn’t be the first time Sazed subtly helped the Southerners. Sazed gave them harmonium and a perpendicularity, and we’ve seen how well they’ve been used.